* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST AL902007 09/09/07 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 28 30 35 41 49 55 58 61 62 61
V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 28 30 35 41 49 55 58 61 42 32
V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 22 23 25 27 31 36 42 33 29
SHEAR (KTS) 16 25 24 16 15 23 8 9 6 8 20 19 29
SHEAR DIR 338 359 24 35 3 40 41 48 183 282 250 278 253
SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.6 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.6 29.8 29.9
POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 154 156 156 162 163 161 159 157 159 164 166
ADJ. POT. INT. 135 137 137 140 140 146 144 139 135 131 134 139 139
200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.4 -53.7 -53.6 -53.4 -54.0 -53.5 -54.1 -53.9 -54.1 -53.8 -54.0 -53.7
TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 11 12 10 11 9 10 7 11 8 11
700-500 MB RH 57 58 58 57 54 56 55 60 65 60 53 54 51
GFS VTEX (KT) 4 4 4 5 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 3 2 3 13 0 -19 -12 16 -5 -21 -42 -28 -27
200 MB DIV 16 22 20 20 6 14 2 23 6 6 8 -9 -7
LAND (KM) 228 240 255 292 338 459 350 195 92 37 12 -45 -120
LAT (DEG N) 23.5 23.7 23.9 24.1 24.3 24.9 25.7 26.3 26.7 27.0 27.7 28.7 29.8
LONG(DEG W) 86.5 87.3 88.0 88.9 89.8 91.8 93.7 95.3 96.4 97.0 97.1 96.7 96.1
STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 8 8 9 10 8 7 4 3 4 6 6
HEAT CONTENT 110 92 55 38 42 50 32 37 54 51 40 9999 9999
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 616 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 11. 18. 24. 29. 33. 36. 39.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 15. 21. 29. 35. 40. 43. 44. 44.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3.
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TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 8. 10. 15. 21. 29. 35. 38. 41. 42. 41.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL902007 INVEST 09/09/07 00 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.6 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 15.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.0 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5
Scaled RI index= 3.1 Prob of RI= 5% is 0.4 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 3.8 Prob of RI= 18% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902007 INVEST 09/09/07 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY