* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * GABRIELLE AL072007 09/09/07 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 38 39 41 41 39 42 51 52 55 49 V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 38 39 41 41 39 42 51 52 55 49 V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 36 37 38 40 41 39 37 36 36 37 40 SHEAR (KTS) 10 18 18 12 18 17 37 59 56 46 43 35 30 SHEAR DIR 42 26 23 13 336 312 270 274 249 227 237 246 259 SST (C) 28.9 28.4 27.8 27.4 26.9 25.7 21.9 18.1 18.6 16.3 14.5 13.8 18.1 POT. INT. (KT) 149 142 133 128 123 113 89 77 78 73 70 69 76 ADJ. POT. INT. 124 117 110 105 102 97 80 72 72 69 67 66 70 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.1 -53.5 -53.5 -53.7 -54.2 -54.7 -55.3 -55.7 -55.0 -54.5 -54.9 -56.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 8 7 6 6 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 36 39 47 50 49 45 50 61 71 47 27 22 29 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 9 8 7 7 7 6 12 25 28 35 32 850 MB ENV VOR -72 -78 -50 -35 -53 -64 -41 -16 46 88 124 95 69 200 MB DIV -34 -22 -1 -13 -3 11 14 44 63 116 13 -6 -8 LAND (KM) 154 74 22 31 63 203 204 163 171 145 166 501 857 LAT (DEG N) 33.5 34.3 35.1 35.8 36.4 37.9 40.1 42.1 43.8 45.5 46.9 48.1 49.1 LONG(DEG W) 75.9 76.0 76.0 75.6 75.1 72.8 69.2 64.9 60.3 55.5 50.8 46.1 41.3 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 7 9 15 18 19 19 18 17 17 17 HEAT CONTENT 34 19 12 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 9 CX,CY: -3/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 638 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 11. 9. 7. 7. 5. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -13. -17. -20. -22. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 0. 10. 12. 17. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 5. 8. 17. 19. 22. 17. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 4. 7. 16. 17. 20. 14. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL072007 GABRIELLE 09/09/07 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.7 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 47.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.1 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Scaled RI index= 2.7 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.2 Prob of RI= 5% is 0.4 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072007 GABRIELLE 09/09/07 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED