* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * GABRIELLE AL072007 09/09/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 48 49 50 52 49 47 45 40 35 29 24 V (KT) LAND 45 47 48 49 50 52 49 47 45 40 35 29 24 V (KT) LGE mod 45 49 51 53 54 54 53 50 48 46 43 40 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 18 21 12 15 20 20 20 16 24 40 40 44 N/A SHEAR DIR 24 29 32 344 348 299 285 259 225 235 249 248 N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.0 27.6 27.1 26.7 25.9 23.9 22.3 22.3 20.3 17.7 15.1 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 136 131 126 121 114 98 90 90 82 75 71 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 118 111 108 105 102 96 85 79 79 74 70 67 N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.8 -53.8 -54.0 -54.2 -54.5 -55.3 -54.9 -54.5 -54.7 -54.3 -53.6 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 8 7 6 6 2 2 2 1 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 39 44 50 49 50 48 58 64 57 36 34 29 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 8 8 7 7 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -66 -58 -36 -53 -65 -64 -75 -16 47 -24 -7 14 N/A 200 MB DIV -33 0 -11 -8 -3 -8 17 38 65 9 10 7 N/A LAND (KM) 67 32 29 111 195 319 340 327 350 365 267 272 N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.2 34.9 35.5 36.2 36.9 38.2 39.3 40.6 41.8 43.0 44.3 45.8 N/A LONG(DEG W) 76.4 76.0 75.6 74.6 73.6 71.0 67.9 64.8 61.3 57.8 53.9 49.8 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 9 11 12 13 13 14 14 15 16 16 N/A HEAT CONTENT 17 14 9 5 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 9 CX,CY: -2/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 719 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 10. 11. 10. 10. 9. 6. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -16. -19. -21. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 6. 4. 1. -4. -9. -15. -18. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 4. 2. 0. -5. -10. -16. -21. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL072007 GABRIELLE 09/09/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.2 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 36.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.0 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Scaled RI index= 2.4 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 2.9 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072007 GABRIELLE 09/09/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY