* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST AL912007 09/09/07 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 26 29 33 41 51 60 66 70 72 73 75
V (KT) LAND 20 22 26 29 33 41 51 60 66 70 72 73 75
V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 24 28 32 37 43 48 54 58 63
SHEAR (KTS) 6 8 8 11 10 6 9 10 9 8 10 9 5
SHEAR DIR 82 138 73 90 82 76 19 38 35 63 83 126 32
SST (C) 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.2 27.0 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.9
POT. INT. (KT) 132 130 130 130 130 128 127 125 122 119 119 120 121
ADJ. POT. INT. 132 129 128 128 127 125 123 120 116 112 111 112 112
200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.3 -53.8 -54.2 -54.1 -53.7 -53.9 -53.6 -53.9 -53.7 -53.8 -53.6 -53.8
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 7 8 8 8 9
700-500 MB RH 71 71 69 68 66 66 68 68 71 75 69 69 62
GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 9 9 8 LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 76 80 80 67 57 48 49 47 42 21 14 13 11
200 MB DIV 66 74 94 95 73 80 58 84 60 90 61 77 19
LAND (KM) 1630 1602 1582 1560 1544 1544 1476 1394 1345 1346 1363 1384 1352
LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.2 10.4 10.5 10.6 10.9 11.1 11.5 12.1 12.8 13.5 14.2 14.7
LONG(DEG W) 33.0 34.0 34.9 35.8 36.7 38.3 39.8 41.0 42.1 42.8 43.4 44.0 45.1
STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 9 8 8 7 6 6 5 5 5 5
HEAT CONTENT 9 12 10 8 11 11 11 11 11 9 10 10 12
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 519 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 26.4 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 15. 20. 25. 28. 30. 32.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 8.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -10.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 21. 30. 40. 47. 52. 54. 55. 58.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3.
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TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 6. 9. 13. 21. 31. 40. 46. 50. 52. 53. 55.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL912007 INVEST 09/09/07 12 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6
D200 (10**7s-1) : 80.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.6 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 34.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.4 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3
Scaled RI index= 4.0 Prob of RI= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 4.3 Prob of RI= 32% is 2.6 times the sample mean(12%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912007 INVEST 09/09/07 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY