* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL922007 09/09/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 25 28 31 38 46 54 60 66 72 76 80 V (KT) LAND 20 23 25 28 31 38 46 54 60 66 72 76 80 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 22 24 26 30 34 40 49 59 69 SHEAR (KTS) 14 15 19 20 15 11 12 8 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 227 211 219 233 250 242 280 234 238 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 145 147 150 152 153 157 157 158 159 162 164 163 163 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 143 145 147 149 152 150 149 148 148 146 142 140 200 MB T (C) -55.1 -55.0 -54.9 -54.9 -55.0 -54.9 -55.0 -54.5 -54.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 14 13 12 12 11 12 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 48 44 44 47 47 48 48 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -30 -28 -36 -46 -46 -48 -52 -56 -76 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 7 9 -7 -10 -1 -3 -2 -1 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 860 777 633 486 348 188 210 255 318 347 272 112 13 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 17.9 18.3 18.7 19.1 20.1 21.0 22.1 23.2 24.4 25.5 26.6 27.6 LONG(DEG W) 57.0 58.4 59.7 61.1 62.5 65.4 68.3 71.1 73.5 75.7 77.5 79.0 80.2 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 14 14 14 14 13 12 11 9 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 61 69 73 80 85 101 74 72 90 71 81 64 63 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 643 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. 0. 4. 11. 19. 25. 31. 35. 39. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 8. 15. 22. 31. 38. 45. 51. 56. 59. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 5. 8. 11. 18. 26. 34. 40. 46. 52. 56. 60. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL922007 INVEST 09/09/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.6 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 73.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.6 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Scaled RI index= 3.7 Prob of RI= 12% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.3 Prob of RI= 32% is 2.6 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922007 INVEST 09/09/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY