* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * GABRIELLE AL072007 09/09/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 43 42 41 39 36 33 47 43 39 35 30 V (KT) LAND 45 47 46 45 45 43 39 36 50 46 42 38 33 V (KT) LGE mod 45 52 51 50 49 46 43 40 38 36 34 33 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 26 17 22 26 24 29 44 30 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 13 6 336 337 321 284 278 268 228 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.1 26.5 26.0 25.5 23.7 21.0 21.3 19.8 17.4 15.3 14.0 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 132 125 119 114 110 97 84 85 80 74 71 69 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 110 104 100 97 94 85 76 76 73 69 67 66 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.9 -54.2 -54.6 -55.0 -55.0 -53.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 6 4 6 3 2 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 52 52 52 50 60 69 67 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 10 8 8 8 8 7 6 4 24 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -38 -33 -43 -54 -55 -52 -10 47 111 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -16 -12 -7 7 14 9 52 50 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 0 21 78 153 218 277 313 300 293 256 196 460 N/A LAT (DEG N) 35.3 36.1 36.8 37.5 38.1 39.3 40.7 41.9 43.2 44.5 45.8 47.3 N/A LONG(DEG W) 76.3 75.7 75.0 73.8 72.5 69.5 66.0 62.5 58.8 55.0 50.9 46.7 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 12 13 14 15 15 15 15 16 16 N/A HEAT CONTENT 8 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 11 CX,CY: 1/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 812 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 5. 4. 4. 3. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -15. -17. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. 10. 10. 10. 9. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -7. -10. 2. -2. -5. -9. -12. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. -1. -1. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. 2. -2. -6. -10. -15. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL072007 GABRIELLE 09/09/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.8 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 16.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.9 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Scaled RI index= 2.0 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 2.4 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072007 GABRIELLE 09/09/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY