* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL902007 09/09/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 28 31 39 48 57 63 69 73 77 79 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 28 31 39 48 57 63 69 73 77 79 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 27 31 37 44 52 62 71 80 SHEAR (KTS) 17 7 11 16 9 3 9 5 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 41 64 41 42 87 62 82 208 250 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.8 30.0 30.1 POT. INT. (KT) 155 156 158 162 164 161 159 156 158 159 164 167 169 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 140 142 146 147 140 135 130 131 133 139 141 142 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.4 -53.8 -53.9 -53.7 -53.8 -54.1 -54.1 -54.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 13 12 11 11 11 9 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 56 55 56 55 59 61 62 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 4 4 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 5 -7 -6 -16 -21 -2 -4 -3 -27 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 15 11 20 6 12 27 29 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 284 332 379 442 440 260 162 106 109 153 158 161 161 LAT (DEG N) 24.0 24.2 24.4 24.7 25.0 25.7 26.1 26.3 26.5 26.8 27.4 27.9 28.3 LONG(DEG W) 89.0 90.0 90.9 91.9 92.9 94.6 95.6 96.2 96.2 95.8 95.1 94.1 93.2 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 10 9 6 4 2 2 3 5 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 38 44 51 57 55 25 36 50 51 50 45 45 40 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 621 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 4. 11. 18. 23. 29. 33. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 15. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 18. 28. 37. 44. 50. 55. 59. 62. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 8. 11. 19. 28. 37. 43. 49. 53. 57. 59. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL902007 INVEST 09/09/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.6 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 34.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.0 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Scaled RI index= 3.5 Prob of RI= 9% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.1 Prob of RI= 25% is 2.1 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902007 INVEST 09/09/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY