* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL912007 09/09/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 26 29 32 41 48 55 58 61 63 65 66 V (KT) LAND 20 23 26 29 32 41 48 55 58 61 63 65 66 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 21 22 23 26 29 32 34 36 38 40 42 SHEAR (KTS) 8 11 13 11 13 13 18 16 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 75 64 76 62 56 40 39 31 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 134 132 134 134 134 133 134 134 133 132 131 129 131 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 132 133 133 133 131 131 129 128 126 123 121 124 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.9 -54.3 -54.2 -53.7 -54.2 -53.5 -54.2 -53.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 68 67 63 62 66 62 68 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 8 7 9 8 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 70 68 59 44 30 30 21 39 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 46 87 83 72 73 86 64 89 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1486 1465 1451 1445 1430 1287 1167 1065 1004 968 969 962 925 LAT (DEG N) 9.7 9.8 9.9 10.0 10.1 10.1 10.2 10.3 10.6 10.9 11.3 11.6 11.8 LONG(DEG W) 35.5 36.5 37.4 38.4 39.3 41.2 42.6 43.9 45.0 45.9 46.4 46.9 47.7 STM SPEED (KT) 12 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 15 16 18 16 17 16 24 26 27 28 25 26 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 484 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 10. 17. 22. 27. 30. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 2. -1. -3. -6. -7. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. 0. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 11. 20. 27. 35. 39. 43. 46. 48. 49. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 9. 12. 21. 28. 35. 38. 41. 43. 45. 46. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL912007 INVEST 09/09/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.3 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 41.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.4 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 Scaled RI index= 4.2 Prob of RI= 25% is 2.0 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.5 Prob of RI= 38% is 3.1 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912007 INVEST 09/09/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY