* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL922007 09/09/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 25 28 31 37 43 48 51 53 57 60 62 V (KT) LAND 20 23 25 28 31 37 43 48 51 53 57 60 62 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 22 24 26 27 29 31 33 36 38 SHEAR (KTS) 14 18 21 15 11 18 20 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 217 217 230 246 251 264 288 293 309 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 144 146 149 151 153 156 158 156 157 157 158 161 163 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 140 143 145 146 147 147 143 142 140 139 140 141 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -54.9 -54.9 -55.0 -54.9 -55.0 -54.8 -54.6 -54.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 13 12 12 11 11 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 43 42 45 45 44 49 45 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -33 -44 -58 -58 -63 -73 -70 -97 -96 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 4 -15 -17 -6 15 0 7 19 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 917 789 667 551 455 374 417 425 522 544 500 326 191 LAT (DEG N) 18.7 19.2 19.6 20.1 20.6 21.6 22.5 23.5 24.5 25.5 26.4 27.1 27.9 LONG(DEG W) 57.0 58.3 59.5 60.8 62.1 64.6 67.1 69.4 71.5 73.5 75.1 76.8 78.4 STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 13 13 13 13 12 11 10 10 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 62 73 72 73 75 74 65 58 49 55 52 57 54 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 4. 11. 18. 24. 30. 34. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 8. 14. 21. 26. 31. 35. 39. 42. 45. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 5. 8. 11. 17. 23. 28. 31. 33. 37. 40. 42. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL922007 INVEST 09/09/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.8 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 60.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.3 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Scaled RI index= 3.6 Prob of RI= 10% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.3 Prob of RI= 29% is 2.4 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922007 INVEST 09/09/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY