* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * GABRIELLE AL072007 09/10/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 39 39 40 39 36 32 29 35 36 28 21 V (KT) LAND 40 39 39 39 40 39 36 32 29 35 36 28 21 V (KT) LGE mod 40 40 40 39 39 38 37 35 33 31 29 29 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 19 25 27 25 22 26 37 37 42 46 55 46 N/A SHEAR DIR 360 339 341 333 302 280 278 261 248 251 258 257 N/A SST (C) 27.2 26.7 26.4 26.1 25.9 23.8 22.7 21.8 18.6 15.9 15.0 18.0 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 126 121 118 116 114 99 93 88 77 72 71 76 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 105 101 99 98 97 87 82 78 71 68 67 70 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.4 -53.8 -54.1 -54.1 -54.7 -54.8 -55.1 -54.8 -55.0 -55.0 -54.2 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 5 7 5 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 51 50 51 55 68 74 66 50 41 39 43 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 7 6 3 3 17 23 17 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -28 -41 -41 -46 -45 -34 -5 40 58 -13 -3 33 N/A 200 MB DIV -18 -11 5 4 3 29 43 49 34 34 46 63 N/A LAND (KM) 8 85 161 238 316 353 322 353 344 244 483 777 N/A LAT (DEG N) 36.0 36.6 37.1 37.7 38.2 39.4 41.0 42.3 43.7 45.0 46.2 47.8 N/A LONG(DEG W) 75.8 74.9 73.9 72.5 71.1 67.5 63.5 59.4 55.3 51.1 46.8 42.4 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 11 12 14 16 17 16 17 16 17 17 N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 9 CX,CY: 5/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 869 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 2.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 8. 7. 6. 6. 4. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -11. -15. -18. -21. -23. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -5. 6. 10. 5. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -3. -7. -11. -5. -3. -11. -15. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -4. -8. -11. -5. -4. -12. -19. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL072007 GABRIELLE 09/10/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.0 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 1.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Scaled RI index= 2.4 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 2.8 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072007 GABRIELLE 09/10/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY