* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL902007 09/10/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 27 30 38 47 55 61 63 66 67 68 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 27 30 38 47 42 33 29 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 21 23 24 28 34 33 29 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 7 10 14 7 3 7 9 7 16 20 24 22 19 SHEAR DIR 43 52 54 101 117 72 188 289 258 300 274 308 277 SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.9 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 156 158 162 164 163 161 158 157 159 162 163 164 163 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 142 145 147 145 140 136 133 134 136 136 134 131 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 -53.6 -53.5 -54.0 -54.0 -54.2 -53.9 -54.0 -53.8 -54.6 -55.3 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 11 11 12 9 11 7 10 7 12 9 11 700-500 MB RH 56 58 58 57 57 62 64 65 58 60 51 46 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 5 4 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -8 -17 -22 -15 -2 -10 -21 -22 -42 -16 -16 -24 200 MB DIV 24 21 2 14 14 -1 17 -3 -3 -18 -10 -32 -31 LAND (KM) 325 378 436 437 335 181 58 -24 -71 -88 -110 -101 -104 LAT (DEG N) 24.1 24.4 24.6 25.0 25.3 26.0 26.4 26.8 27.3 28.2 29.1 29.5 29.6 LONG(DEG W) 90.1 91.1 92.0 93.0 93.9 95.4 96.7 97.6 98.1 98.0 97.2 96.5 96.3 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 8 7 5 4 4 5 4 3 1 HEAT CONTENT 46 54 59 55 31 32 46 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 593 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. 0. 4. 11. 18. 23. 29. 33. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 14. 14. 13. 12. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 18. 26. 35. 42. 45. 48. 49. 51. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 10. 18. 27. 35. 41. 43. 46. 47. 48. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL902007 INVEST 09/10/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.9 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 31.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.0 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 Scaled RI index= 3.6 Prob of RI= 11% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.3 Prob of RI= 30% is 2.4 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902007 INVEST 09/10/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY