*   ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    *        GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED            *
                    *  INVEST      AL912007  09/10/07  00 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    20    22    25    28    32    42    50    58    65    69    71    73    74
V (KT) LAND       20    22    25    28    32    42    50    58    65    69    71    73    74
V (KT) LGE mod    20    20    21    22    23    26    30    34    39    45    51    57    62

SHEAR (KTS)       13    15    10     9     5    11    10    14     7     9    11     8     4
SHEAR DIR         75    83    85    77    77    17    41    40    47    52    94    76   142
SST (C)         27.7  27.7  27.6  27.6  27.6  27.4  27.4  27.3  27.3  27.3  27.3  27.4  27.5
POT. INT. (KT)   133   132   131   131   131   128   127   126   125   125   125   126   128
ADJ. POT. INT.   133   130   129   128   127   123   122   120   118   117   117   118   120
200 MB T (C)   -53.8 -54.2 -54.0 -53.5 -53.8 -54.1 -53.7 -54.2 -54.0 -54.3 -54.2 -54.3 -54.2
TH_E DEV (C)       7     7     7     7     8     7     7     7     8     9     9     9    10
700-500 MB RH     68    68    66    63    64    60    63    67    69    66    67    61    64
GFS VTEX (KT)      8     7     7     6     7     8     8     8     8  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST
850 MB ENV VOR    62    56    45    34    32    36    50    55    41    31    13     3    12
200 MB DIV        75    84    73    93    83    75    78    65    80    49    31    -1    12
LAND (KM)       1485  1485  1491  1487  1443  1310  1229  1159  1129  1104  1107  1095  1075
LAT (DEG N)     10.0  10.2  10.4  10.6  10.7  10.9  11.2  11.5  11.9  12.3  12.8  13.2  13.6
LONG(DEG W)     36.5  37.4  38.2  39.1  39.9  41.5  42.7  43.9  44.8  45.7  46.3  47.0  48.0
STM SPEED (KT)    10     9     9     8     8     7     6     6     5     4     4     4     5
HEAT CONTENT      14    15    13    14    13    14    15    14    14    18    21    23    27

  FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13      CX,CY: -12/  2
  T-12 MAX WIND:  20            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  491  (MEAN=625)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD:  21.0 (MEAN=20.0)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  49.0 (MEAN=69.0)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  10.  11.  11.  12.  13.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.   0.   0.   1.   4.   9.  15.  21.  25.  28.  31.  33.
  VERTICAL SHEAR         1.   2.   3.   4.   5.   5.   4.   4.   3.   2.   3.   4.
  PERSISTENCE            0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   3.   3.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -5.  -6.  -7.  -8.  -8.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.
  GFS VORTEX TENDENCY    0.   0.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   1.   1.   1.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   7.   8.   9.   8.   7.   6.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   3.   3.   3.   4.   4.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   3.   3.   3.   3.   2.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SUB-TOTAL CHANGE       2.   4.   7.  11.  20.  30.  38.  46.  51.  53.  55.  57.

  SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
  MEAN ADJUSTMENT        0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.
  GOES IR STD DEV        1.   2.   2.   2.   3.   2.   2.   1.  -1.   0.   0.   0.
  GOES IR PIXEL COUNT    0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   1.   1.   0.   0.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL ADJUSTMENT       0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -3.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE (KT)      2.   5.   8.  12.  22.  30.  38.  45.  49.  51.  53.  54.

   ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX   AL912007 INVEST     09/10/07  00 UTC **
                    ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   0.0 Range:-45.0 to  30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  0.9
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :  10.4 Range: 35.1 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  0.6
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  81.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  0.5
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   : 109.5 Range:  8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  1.6
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  74.8 Range: 57.0 to  88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  0.2
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  33.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.2/  0.1
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :  21.0 Range: 37.5 to   5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  0.5
 
 Scaled RI index=    4.1 Prob of RI=  20% is   1.6 times the sample mean(12%)
 Discrim RI index=   4.4 Prob of RI=  35% is   2.9 times the sample mean(12%)

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912007 INVEST     09/10/07  00 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
   ##     ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY