* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL912007 09/10/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 28 32 42 50 58 65 69 71 73 74 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 28 32 42 50 58 65 69 71 73 74 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 26 30 34 39 45 51 57 62 SHEAR (KTS) 13 15 10 9 5 11 10 14 7 9 11 8 4 SHEAR DIR 75 83 85 77 77 17 41 40 47 52 94 76 142 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 133 132 131 131 131 128 127 126 125 125 125 126 128 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 130 129 128 127 123 122 120 118 117 117 118 120 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.2 -54.0 -53.5 -53.8 -54.1 -53.7 -54.2 -54.0 -54.3 -54.2 -54.3 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 7 8 9 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 68 68 66 63 64 60 63 67 69 66 67 61 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 7 6 7 8 8 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 62 56 45 34 32 36 50 55 41 31 13 3 12 200 MB DIV 75 84 73 93 83 75 78 65 80 49 31 -1 12 LAND (KM) 1485 1485 1491 1487 1443 1310 1229 1159 1129 1104 1107 1095 1075 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.2 10.4 10.6 10.7 10.9 11.2 11.5 11.9 12.3 12.8 13.2 13.6 LONG(DEG W) 36.5 37.4 38.2 39.1 39.9 41.5 42.7 43.9 44.8 45.7 46.3 47.0 48.0 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 8 8 7 6 6 5 4 4 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 14 15 13 14 13 14 15 14 14 18 21 23 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 491 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 15. 21. 25. 28. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 20. 30. 38. 46. 51. 53. 55. 57. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 12. 22. 30. 38. 45. 49. 51. 53. 54. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL912007 INVEST 09/10/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 81.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.5 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 33.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.0 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Scaled RI index= 4.1 Prob of RI= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.4 Prob of RI= 35% is 2.9 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912007 INVEST 09/10/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY