* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL922007 09/10/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 26 28 36 42 49 54 59 65 69 70 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 26 28 36 42 49 54 59 65 69 70 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 22 23 25 27 29 32 36 41 47 SHEAR (KTS) 17 21 16 13 15 17 19 20 14 15 10 9 10 SHEAR DIR 220 227 241 229 226 264 267 284 304 325 330 333 306 SST (C) 28.6 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.7 29.7 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 146 150 151 153 155 158 156 158 159 160 163 162 162 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 145 146 147 148 151 147 146 144 142 141 139 137 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -54.9 -55.0 -54.9 -55.0 -55.0 -54.7 -54.8 -54.4 -54.5 -53.9 -54.4 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 13 13 12 11 12 11 12 11 12 10 11 700-500 MB RH 45 44 45 44 43 46 45 49 51 53 53 53 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -40 -53 -52 -59 -60 -62 -75 -89 -80 -71 -50 -51 -41 200 MB DIV -11 -16 -5 15 0 -14 11 6 13 31 30 23 42 LAND (KM) 770 629 496 379 298 300 295 395 438 438 277 175 107 LAT (DEG N) 18.4 18.9 19.3 19.8 20.3 21.2 22.3 23.4 24.7 25.8 26.9 27.7 28.4 LONG(DEG W) 58.4 59.8 61.1 62.5 63.8 66.6 69.3 71.9 74.1 75.8 77.3 78.5 79.5 STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 13 14 14 14 13 13 11 9 7 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 69 72 77 84 87 87 67 63 62 56 56 53 62 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 632 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 4. 11. 19. 25. 30. 35. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 13. 20. 26. 31. 37. 43. 48. 52. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 6. 8. 16. 22. 29. 34. 39. 45. 49. 50. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL922007 INVEST 09/10/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.3 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 Scaled RI index= 3.2 Prob of RI= 7% is 0.5 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.1 Prob of RI= 25% is 2.1 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922007 INVEST 09/10/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY