* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * GABRIELLE AL072007 09/10/07 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 37 36 37 40 49 46 43 40 33 27 V (KT) LAND 35 35 36 37 36 37 40 49 46 43 40 33 27 V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 35 35 35 34 34 33 32 30 31 32 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 25 27 22 22 27 28 31 20 35 36 37 40 N/A SHEAR DIR 336 344 343 309 304 294 262 248 265 263 258 229 N/A SST (C) 26.6 26.3 26.2 25.7 24.6 23.1 22.9 19.3 16.0 17.8 19.5 16.6 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 120 118 117 112 104 96 95 80 73 76 80 74 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 101 100 99 95 90 85 85 74 69 71 73 69 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -54.0 -54.2 -54.1 -54.4 -54.6 -54.9 -55.0 -55.1 -55.5 -55.7 -55.1 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 4 6 5 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 49 50 54 61 68 64 56 49 44 44 43 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 7 6 5 4 10 23 25 24 22 16 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -42 -48 -47 -53 -53 -14 -16 -10 -29 -32 -3 26 N/A 200 MB DIV -19 6 6 0 16 55 22 39 9 25 37 57 N/A LAND (KM) 74 182 268 319 324 368 399 384 363 665 1006 1348 N/A LAT (DEG N) 36.7 37.2 37.7 38.3 38.9 40.2 41.8 43.3 44.7 46.0 47.3 48.9 N/A LONG(DEG W) 75.0 73.6 72.1 70.7 69.3 65.1 59.6 54.6 49.4 44.4 39.4 34.6 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 13 13 13 15 20 21 20 19 19 18 18 N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 9 CX,CY: 4/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 805 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 7.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 4. 6. 8. 11. 12. 11. 11. 10. 10. 9. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -12. -16. -20. -23. -25. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. 1. 11. 12. 12. 10. 5. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 14. 11. 8. 5. -1. -4. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 1. 2. 1. 2. 5. 14. 12. 8. 5. -2. -8. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL072007 GABRIELLE 09/10/07 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.9 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.9 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 Scaled RI index= 2.8 Prob of RI= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.1 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072007 GABRIELLE 09/10/07 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED