* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * GABRIELLE AL072007 09/10/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 27 26 26 26 34 41 40 40 34 31 26 V (KT) LAND 30 28 27 26 26 26 34 41 40 40 34 31 26 V (KT) LGE mod 30 27 25 24 23 23 22 22 21 20 21 23 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 24 22 20 29 28 22 44 32 40 38 30 31 N/A SHEAR DIR 343 346 318 301 305 277 254 252 253 257 228 210 N/A SST (C) 26.5 26.4 26.2 24.9 23.5 23.6 20.3 16.7 15.8 19.7 18.3 16.4 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 119 119 117 106 97 99 84 75 73 81 77 73 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 100 100 100 92 86 89 77 70 69 73 71 68 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.8 -54.0 -54.4 -54.7 -54.8 -55.3 -55.0 -55.4 -55.3 -55.6 -55.1 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 5 3 2 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 47 51 58 65 67 63 55 37 36 43 52 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 7 5 5 4 15 25 27 28 20 15 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -43 -43 -45 -51 -20 -6 6 9 -26 -6 0 0 N/A 200 MB DIV 0 10 3 15 36 39 43 32 30 52 70 70 N/A LAND (KM) 174 259 349 358 362 369 400 247 513 860 1226 1485 N/A LAT (DEG N) 37.0 37.5 37.9 38.6 39.3 40.9 43.0 44.7 46.2 47.6 48.7 50.2 N/A LONG(DEG W) 73.8 72.4 70.9 69.2 67.5 62.7 57.1 51.7 46.4 41.3 36.3 31.4 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 14 15 18 22 22 20 19 18 17 18 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 10 CX,CY: 9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 779 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 14. 13. 12. 11. 12. 10. 6. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -5. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 10. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -9. -13. -16. -20. -23. -26. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. 5. 13. 14. 15. 8. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 5. 11. 10. 10. 5. 2. -1. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 4. 11. 10. 10. 4. 1. -4. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL072007 GABRIELLE 09/10/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.6 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 7.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 Scaled RI index= 2.6 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 2.8 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072007 GABRIELLE 09/10/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY