* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL912007 09/10/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 28 30 37 44 50 55 60 66 70 73 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 28 30 37 44 50 55 60 66 70 73 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 24 27 28 31 33 38 44 54 SHEAR (KTS) 11 12 11 14 15 16 19 15 14 10 5 1 4 SHEAR DIR 89 68 55 63 46 39 42 51 44 89 24 76 324 SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.7 28.8 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 140 141 142 144 145 147 148 145 143 143 146 147 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 142 143 144 146 147 148 144 141 140 142 145 147 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.4 -53.8 -54.0 -54.0 -53.7 -54.2 -54.1 -54.3 -54.4 -54.4 -54.2 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 700-500 MB RH 65 61 61 62 60 59 60 59 60 55 54 48 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 6 7 7 8 8 7 8 9 10 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 31 18 18 13 12 20 25 21 15 6 4 -9 -13 200 MB DIV 69 81 80 55 49 53 38 43 15 17 -5 -29 -66 LAND (KM) 1404 1376 1297 1208 1124 971 839 742 665 616 582 570 454 LAT (DEG N) 9.7 9.9 10.1 10.2 10.2 10.2 10.2 10.4 10.6 10.8 10.9 11.0 11.0 LONG(DEG W) 39.0 40.1 41.1 42.1 43.1 45.0 46.9 48.6 50.3 51.8 53.3 54.7 56.3 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 10 10 9 9 8 8 7 7 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 20 17 15 22 25 34 37 32 34 49 50 53 55 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 534 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. 0. 4. 11. 18. 24. 30. 34. 38. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -2. -4. -5. -4. -2. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 16. 23. 30. 36. 42. 48. 53. 56. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 10. 17. 24. 30. 35. 40. 46. 50. 53. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL912007 INVEST 09/10/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.7 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 51.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.2 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 Scaled RI index= 4.2 Prob of RI= 25% is 2.1 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.6 Prob of RI= 41% is 3.4 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912007 INVEST 09/10/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY