* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * GABRIELLE AL072007 09/10/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 32 33 43 52 50 46 41 35 30 23 V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 32 33 43 52 50 46 41 35 30 23 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 29 27 27 28 DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 23 19 27 27 29 26 24 41 47 38 34 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 353 319 300 308 310 251 242 251 250 252 232 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.7 26.2 25.1 24.0 23.8 22.8 18.4 15.9 16.2 19.8 17.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 122 117 108 101 100 94 78 72 73 81 76 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 104 100 94 89 88 84 72 68 68 73 70 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.1 -54.5 -55.0 -55.1 -55.5 -55.4 -55.3 -55.5 -55.1 -54.9 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 5 4 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 48 54 61 66 62 52 43 41 43 43 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 6 6 4 16 27 27 24 21 14 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -49 -50 -61 -33 -30 -8 8 -37 -38 9 37 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -6 -7 6 25 57 18 50 31 24 52 58 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 302 372 380 414 396 373 345 273 557 889 1235 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 37.3 37.9 38.5 39.3 40.0 42.0 43.7 45.2 46.6 47.8 49.4 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 71.9 70.4 68.8 66.7 64.6 59.8 55.0 50.3 45.6 40.9 36.1 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 16 18 19 20 19 18 17 18 18 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 75/ 15 CX,CY: 14/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 670 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR 2. 4. 7. 10. 14. 15. 14. 13. 11. 12. 10. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 10. 10. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -9. -13. -17. -21. -23. -26. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. 5. 14. 14. 12. 9. 4. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -12. -13. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 13. 23. 21. 16. 12. 6. 2. -3. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 1. 2. 3. 13. 22. 20. 16. 11. 5. 0. -7. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL072007 GABRIELLE 09/10/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.8 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 14.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.1 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Scaled RI index= 2.5 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 2.9 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072007 GABRIELLE 09/10/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY