* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL912007 09/10/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 28 30 38 43 49 52 57 61 65 69 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 28 30 38 43 49 52 57 61 65 69 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 22 24 25 26 27 29 33 40 49 SHEAR (KTS) 12 12 15 15 16 19 19 16 13 5 3 5 2 SHEAR DIR 56 61 51 42 49 53 58 44 58 52 65 209 179 SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 141 142 144 145 146 146 145 143 142 141 143 144 146 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 143 145 146 146 145 144 142 139 138 138 140 141 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.7 -54.0 -54.0 -53.4 -54.2 -53.8 -54.1 -54.1 -54.4 -54.3 -54.5 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 10 11 11 11 12 700-500 MB RH 60 61 60 59 58 61 56 60 56 54 48 47 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 8 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 16 17 10 7 2 20 20 6 4 -7 -6 -19 -15 200 MB DIV 73 77 61 60 71 65 40 35 23 1 -17 -44 -31 LAND (KM) 1349 1273 1190 1116 1049 930 827 735 683 654 673 601 476 LAT (DEG N) 9.7 9.9 10.0 10.2 10.3 10.4 10.6 10.8 11.1 11.4 11.8 12.0 12.3 LONG(DEG W) 40.2 41.2 42.2 43.2 44.1 45.8 47.6 49.3 51.0 52.5 54.0 55.4 56.9 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 9 9 8 9 8 8 7 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 23 22 31 35 36 39 40 39 49 47 47 50 56 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 506 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 4. 11. 18. 24. 30. 34. 37. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -6. -5. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 16. 22. 28. 33. 39. 43. 48. 52. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 10. 18. 23. 29. 32. 37. 41. 45. 49. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL912007 INVEST 09/10/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.7 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 47.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.8 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Scaled RI index= 4.1 Prob of RI= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.6 Prob of RI= 40% is 3.3 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912007 INVEST 09/10/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY