* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * GABRIELLE AL072007 09/11/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 36 48 52 50 47 44 39 34 27 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 36 48 52 50 47 44 39 34 27 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 29 28 28 30 DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 23 25 27 28 23 19 28 36 40 36 39 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 320 318 312 318 299 289 245 268 257 246 237 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.3 25.4 25.3 25.4 25.3 20.4 16.6 17.0 20.0 18.1 16.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 119 110 110 112 112 84 74 75 82 76 73 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 103 96 96 98 98 77 70 70 74 70 68 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.6 -55.1 -55.4 -55.4 -55.5 -55.0 -55.2 -55.3 -55.4 -54.7 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 53 60 65 64 60 55 46 42 42 47 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 6 5 8 23 27 27 25 22 19 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -48 -62 -45 -39 -35 -16 -4 -17 -8 0 0 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -5 -5 7 39 50 34 26 37 42 65 43 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 402 433 493 459 489 457 312 582 913 1254 1465 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 37.8 38.3 38.8 39.6 40.4 42.7 44.5 46.1 47.6 48.8 50.4 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 69.8 67.9 66.0 63.7 61.3 55.8 50.6 45.5 40.6 35.9 31.2 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 18 20 22 22 20 19 17 17 17 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 75/ 17 CX,CY: 16/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR 2. 5. 8. 10. 14. 15. 15. 14. 13. 14. 12. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 10. 10. 11. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -14. -18. -22. -25. -27. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. 10. 14. 14. 13. 11. 8. 8. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -13. -14. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 6. 18. 22. 21. 18. 16. 11. 6. 1. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 4. 6. 18. 22. 20. 18. 14. 9. 4. -3. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL072007 GABRIELLE 09/11/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.2 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 38.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.4 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 Scaled RI index= 2.8 Prob of RI= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.1 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072007 GABRIELLE 09/11/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY