* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL912007 09/11/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 26 28 33 38 44 49 54 60 64 69 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 26 28 33 38 44 49 54 60 64 69 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 21 21 21 21 22 23 26 32 39 48 SHEAR (KTS) 15 19 20 21 18 22 16 15 6 4 6 5 10 SHEAR DIR 68 69 66 64 59 69 75 45 66 332 213 290 244 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 144 146 147 148 148 148 146 145 147 148 148 149 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 148 149 149 149 148 146 145 146 146 146 148 147 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -54.1 -54.0 -53.5 -53.7 -54.2 -53.9 -54.1 -54.3 -54.4 -54.4 -54.5 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 12 700-500 MB RH 62 62 62 61 60 58 58 59 52 50 48 51 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 18 8 2 9 5 7 -12 -23 -22 -20 -23 -14 200 MB DIV 75 67 62 76 72 47 44 13 1 -38 -34 -42 6 LAND (KM) 1242 1148 1059 986 919 790 679 598 568 570 472 336 187 LAT (DEG N) 9.8 9.9 10.0 10.1 10.1 10.1 10.2 10.3 10.7 11.0 11.2 11.5 11.9 LONG(DEG W) 41.5 42.6 43.7 44.7 45.6 47.5 49.3 51.1 52.9 54.7 56.3 58.0 59.7 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 24 34 39 44 45 44 41 53 50 53 53 66 70 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 4. 11. 19. 25. 31. 35. 39. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -4. -7. -8. -7. -6. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 11. 17. 24. 30. 36. 42. 47. 51. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 6. 8. 13. 18. 24. 29. 34. 40. 44. 49. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL912007 INVEST 09/11/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.5 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 58.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Scaled RI index= 4.2 Prob of RI= 23% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.7 Prob of RI= 41% is 3.4 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912007 INVEST 09/11/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY