* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* GABRIELLE AL072007 09/11/07 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 35 39 50 52 52 48 45 38 32 24
V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 35 39 50 52 52 48 45 38 32 24
V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 30 29 29 28 27 27 28 30 DIS DIS
SHEAR (KTS) 29 31 33 30 25 22 41 36 39 45 41 N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 312 308 306 301 284 266 265 255 271 264 264 N/A N/A
SST (C) 24.9 24.7 25.0 24.8 23.7 17.4 14.5 18.7 17.8 15.9 15.8 N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 107 105 108 107 100 77 72 78 76 72 72 N/A N/A
ADJ. POT. INT. 93 92 95 95 90 72 68 72 70 68 68 N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -54.5 -55.0 -55.3 -55.3 -55.6 -55.4 -55.0 -55.7 -56.1 -56.0 -55.7 N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 54 60 64 60 61 54 49 38 44 46 49 N/A N/A
GFS VTEX (KT) 5 4 5 6 11 26 27 27 23 19 11 LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -62 -39 -22 -23 -18 13 -15 -28 -22 -3 24 N/A N/A
200 MB DIV -6 3 40 75 17 19 32 30 50 75 57 N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 409 477 434 464 444 244 422 806 1176 1506 1137 N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 38.6 39.2 39.8 40.7 41.6 44.5 46.7 48.4 49.9 50.9 52.3 N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 67.8 65.8 63.8 61.3 58.8 53.0 47.4 42.0 36.9 32.0 27.0 N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 17 17 19 21 23 24 21 19 17 17 17 N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 17 CX,CY: 16/ 6
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 656 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.6 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 1. 2. 4.
VERTICAL SHEAR 2. 5. 8. 11. 15. 16. 16. 15. 14. 15. 12. 6.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 14. 15.
THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -8. -11. -15. -19. -23. -26. -29.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 3. 13. 15. 16. 13. 10. 3. 3. 3.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 9. 20. 22. 22. 18. 16. 9. 3. -3.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 5. 9. 20. 22. 22. 18. 15. 8. 2. -6.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL072007 GABRIELLE 09/11/07 06 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.8 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 25.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.6 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5
Scaled RI index= 2.6 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 2.9 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072007 GABRIELLE 09/11/07 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED