* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL912007 09/11/07 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 28 31 37 46 53 59 64 68 73 75 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 28 31 37 46 53 59 64 68 73 75 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 22 24 26 28 32 38 46 57 69 SHEAR (KTS) 16 13 13 13 18 13 10 13 1 2 4 1 11 SHEAR DIR 59 57 74 67 59 71 15 53 262 335 239 153 237 SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 144 142 142 142 142 140 137 136 136 137 139 142 142 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 142 140 139 139 137 133 130 130 130 131 133 133 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.9 -53.4 -53.6 -54.1 -53.7 -54.1 -53.7 -54.0 -53.9 -54.2 -54.2 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 8 9 9 10 11 11 11 12 12 700-500 MB RH 61 60 60 56 59 56 59 56 55 49 46 46 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 6 7 7 7 8 9 9 8 8 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 27 23 16 16 16 12 5 2 -4 4 6 18 2 200 MB DIV 62 55 76 81 60 46 54 37 -4 -19 -38 -15 -15 LAND (KM) 1179 1123 1074 1032 991 909 858 847 832 840 799 707 622 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.8 11.1 11.3 11.4 11.7 12.1 12.6 12.9 13.2 13.3 13.5 13.7 LONG(DEG W) 42.7 43.7 44.6 45.4 46.2 47.8 49.4 50.7 51.9 53.0 54.1 55.1 56.1 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 8 8 8 8 6 6 5 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 31 28 27 32 34 37 39 47 45 47 50 58 63 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 533 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 4. 10. 17. 23. 28. 32. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 16. 25. 33. 40. 46. 50. 55. 58. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 8. 11. 17. 26. 33. 39. 44. 48. 53. 56. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL912007 INVEST 09/11/07 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.2 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 53.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.0 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 Scaled RI index= 4.1 Prob of RI= 19% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.5 Prob of RI= 38% is 3.1 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912007 INVEST 09/11/07 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED