* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL912007 09/11/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 37 44 53 58 64 66 69 70 70 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 37 44 53 58 64 66 69 70 70 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 30 32 35 39 43 49 57 65 74 79 SHEAR (KTS) 14 13 12 13 13 7 11 6 5 3 1 11 10 SHEAR DIR 63 66 71 59 58 71 31 66 19 161 90 181 270 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 140 140 138 138 138 137 136 134 134 134 134 135 137 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 137 135 135 134 131 129 127 125 125 124 126 127 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.5 -53.6 -54.0 -54.0 -53.8 -54.0 -53.9 -54.0 -54.1 -54.3 -54.3 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 62 58 59 56 54 57 57 52 51 48 45 46 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 7 7 7 7 11 9 9 7 7 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 20 11 10 12 13 0 -9 -7 9 5 -1 3 1 200 MB DIV 43 63 57 34 20 24 41 26 -12 -18 -32 -12 -4 LAND (KM) 1257 1213 1174 1136 1102 1043 1001 976 965 968 982 1004 998 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.3 11.5 11.7 11.9 12.3 12.7 13.0 13.3 13.7 14.1 14.5 14.9 LONG(DEG W) 42.2 43.0 43.7 44.5 45.2 46.6 47.8 48.8 49.7 50.5 51.2 51.9 52.8 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 4 4 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 24 25 23 23 28 33 36 41 46 50 53 60 59 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 658 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 5. 10. 16. 20. 25. 27. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 1. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 11. 18. 28. 34. 40. 43. 46. 47. 48. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 9. 12. 19. 28. 33. 39. 41. 44. 45. 45. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL912007 INVEST 09/11/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.4 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 42.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.9 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 Scaled RI index= 3.8 Prob of RI= 13% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.3 Prob of RI= 31% is 2.6 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912007 INVEST 09/11/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY