* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL912007 09/11/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 37 41 51 59 67 71 73 73 70 69 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 37 41 51 59 67 71 73 73 70 69 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 32 34 39 46 53 60 67 72 73 70 SHEAR (KTS) 10 6 7 7 4 4 5 4 1 12 14 23 20 SHEAR DIR 80 98 77 73 76 39 37 261 176 250 254 264 261 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 136 136 136 136 134 134 133 132 132 132 133 134 135 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 131 131 130 129 126 125 122 123 123 123 123 123 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -53.9 -53.9 -53.4 -53.9 -53.4 -54.1 -53.8 -54.0 -54.1 -54.3 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 60 61 59 57 60 57 56 55 52 49 46 44 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 10 10 11 9 9 8 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 14 18 21 25 13 14 8 12 0 0 5 12 5 200 MB DIV 60 67 61 40 46 57 40 16 6 1 -18 -33 13 LAND (KM) 1371 1333 1299 1269 1243 1200 1187 1184 1205 1229 1269 1244 1199 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.2 12.4 12.7 12.9 13.4 14.0 14.5 15.1 15.8 16.6 17.3 18.0 LONG(DEG W) 41.6 42.3 43.0 43.7 44.4 45.7 46.7 47.6 48.4 49.4 50.5 51.6 52.7 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 6 6 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 19 20 21 22 21 27 31 31 33 42 46 49 54 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 608 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 9. 15. 19. 23. 26. 28. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 11. 13. 12. 11. 8. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 14. 25. 33. 42. 47. 50. 50. 47. 47. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 12. 16. 26. 34. 42. 46. 48. 48. 45. 44. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL912007 INVEST 09/11/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.2 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 43.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 Scaled RI index= 4.2 Prob of RI= 24% is 2.0 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.5 Prob of RI= 38% is 3.1 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912007 INVEST 09/11/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY