* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST AL902007 09/12/07 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 28 31 37 45 51 56 59 63 65 65
V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 28 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27
V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 26 27 27 27 27 27
SHEAR (KTS) 3 7 5 4 10 8 16 11 13 8 9 14 23
SHEAR DIR 264 312 303 221 244 264 232 249 239 291 231 251 244
SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.9 29.9 28.9 25.5
POT. INT. (KT) 159 158 156 156 155 156 159 159 163 168 168 150 108
ADJ. POT. INT. 135 136 134 133 132 132 131 133 139 146 145 127 93
200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.6 -53.8 -53.5 -53.0 -53.0 -52.6 -53.8 -54.0 -54.7 -54.4 -54.7 -54.9
TH_E DEV (C) 11 7 6 6 9 6 12 8 12 6 12 6 10
700-500 MB RH 67 69 69 68 67 65 53 46 41 41 43 46 49
GFS VTEX (KT) 6 5 5 5 5 3 4 4 4 3 2 LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 2 -5 -18 -22 -14 -33 16 -1 -5 -11 -41 -20 9
200 MB DIV 24 5 0 16 7 3 11 -30 -29 -10 12 17 29
LAND (KM) 233 182 132 92 43 -69 -170 -217 -303 -488 -617 -540 -569
LAT (DEG N) 26.2 26.5 26.7 27.1 27.4 28.3 29.2 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.9 31.0 32.5
LONG(DEG W) 94.9 95.5 96.0 96.5 96.9 97.6 98.0 98.6 99.9 102.0 104.3 106.2 107.2
STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 5 5 5 5 3 4 7 10 10 9 8
HEAT CONTENT 30 36 51 51 41 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 506 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 10. 17. 22. 28. 32. 35. 37.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 6. 8. 11. 13. 14. 14. 14. 15. 14. 13.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 6. 9. 15. 24. 30. 37. 41. 45. 47. 48.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3.
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TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 11. 17. 25. 31. 36. 39. 43. 45. 45.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL902007 INVEST 09/12/07 00 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7
D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.9 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 36.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6
Scaled RI index= 4.0 Prob of RI= 18% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 4.4 Prob of RI= 34% is 2.8 times the sample mean(12%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902007 INVEST 09/12/07 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY