* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST AL912007 09/12/07 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 34 41 47 55 59 60 60 59 59
V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 34 41 47 55 59 60 60 59 59
V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 31 35 40 45 51 54 55 53
SHEAR (KTS) 8 9 9 7 6 10 4 6 9 16 19 24 24
SHEAR DIR 87 74 63 76 81 14 93 23 168 247 232 251 245
SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.8
POT. INT. (KT) 135 135 135 133 133 132 132 130 131 130 130 131 132
ADJ. POT. INT. 130 130 129 126 126 123 122 121 121 121 120 121 120
200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -53.9 -53.7 -53.9 -54.0 -54.3 -54.5
TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 11 10 10
700-500 MB RH 61 61 60 58 57 52 56 53 48 43 46 43 46
GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 6 7 9 8 9 8 8 7 7 8
850 MB ENV VOR 10 16 17 6 13 1 5 2 -2 -6 10 13 23
200 MB DIV 48 44 29 31 36 19 6 2 12 -1 -23 -14 0
LAND (KM) 1361 1333 1309 1299 1292 1260 1249 1262 1287 1321 1344 1354 1307
LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.4 12.7 13.0 13.3 13.7 14.2 14.8 15.5 16.3 17.0 17.8 18.5
LONG(DEG W) 41.9 42.6 43.2 43.7 44.2 45.2 46.0 46.7 47.5 48.5 49.6 50.7 51.8
STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 6 7 6 7 6
HEAT CONTENT 20 19 21 22 21 23 27 26 28 34 39 45 45
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 670 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.4 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 14. 19. 23. 25. 27. 29.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 9. 7. 4. 2.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
----------------------------------------------------------
SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 16. 22. 30. 35. 37. 37. 36. 37.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 6. 9. 16. 22. 30. 34. 35. 35. 34. 34.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL912007 INVEST 09/12/07 00 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7
D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.2 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 47.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.4 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4
Scaled RI index= 3.9 Prob of RI= 14% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 4.2 Prob of RI= 28% is 2.3 times the sample mean(12%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912007 INVEST 09/12/07 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY