* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL902007 09/12/07 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 28 34 39 44 46 45 46 46 45 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 25 24 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 21 25 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 9 6 4 14 16 11 21 15 22 14 12 13 16 SHEAR DIR 304 316 248 259 286 255 254 266 262 247 261 271 269 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 28.9 28.7 28.9 28.8 27.7 25.7 23.2 POT. INT. (KT) 160 160 158 158 158 156 147 144 148 147 131 110 92 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 135 134 134 134 130 119 118 124 124 110 93 80 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.7 -53.5 -53.1 -53.0 -52.6 -53.2 -54.0 -54.2 -54.7 -54.7 -54.9 -54.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 4 6 8 5 8 7 9 4 6 6 9 7 700-500 MB RH 66 63 62 66 69 58 46 42 41 39 37 42 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 4 5 5 4 4 3 4 3 1 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -23 -31 -24 -32 -5 -5 -20 -34 -72 -40 -51 -31 200 MB DIV 9 6 14 7 3 14 -15 -24 -12 -13 7 -6 19 LAND (KM) 182 136 82 21 -38 -169 -232 -294 -336 -469 -608 -773 -911 LAT (DEG N) 27.2 27.5 27.8 28.3 28.7 30.1 30.9 31.1 30.9 31.1 31.7 32.7 34.0 LONG(DEG W) 95.0 95.5 95.9 96.3 96.6 96.7 96.6 97.3 98.4 100.2 101.6 102.9 103.9 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 6 5 3 4 6 7 7 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 42 47 46 33 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 619 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 10. 16. 21. 26. 29. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 6. 8. 11. 12. 12. 11. 10. 10. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -4. -3. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 13. 19. 24. 26. 25. 27. 28. 28. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 5. 8. 14. 19. 24. 26. 25. 26. 26. 25. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL902007 INVEST 09/12/07 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.5 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 8.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Scaled RI index= 3.5 Prob of RI= 10% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.1 Prob of RI= 24% is 2.0 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902007 INVEST 09/12/07 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED