* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * NINE AL092007 09/12/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 36 43 45 44 38 35 34 35 35 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 10 7 12 18 11 17 27 31 22 19 11 13 16 SHEAR DIR 310 271 250 283 283 242 241 239 267 265 314 289 323 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 28.7 27.7 28.2 29.2 29.6 29.4 29.0 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 160 160 160 161 161 146 130 136 153 160 156 150 134 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 134 135 136 135 122 107 111 126 134 130 126 112 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.3 -52.9 -52.7 -52.6 -52.2 -53.3 -53.7 -54.7 -55.0 -55.4 -55.5 -55.6 TH_E DEV (C) 4 6 7 3 2 8 4 7 0 6 1 10 4 700-500 MB RH 64 61 62 60 60 49 44 38 38 34 30 30 29 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 5 5 5 6 7 5 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -38 -35 -45 -53 -6 -32 -57 -97 -96 -104 -57 -57 200 MB DIV -9 17 9 12 3 21 -14 -11 -43 -41 -15 -15 -17 LAND (KM) 112 64 16 -53 -96 -184 -269 -242 -138 -64 -106 -225 -380 LAT (DEG N) 27.8 28.2 28.6 29.3 29.9 31.3 32.2 31.9 31.0 30.3 30.3 30.8 31.7 LONG(DEG W) 95.2 95.5 95.7 95.7 95.7 94.8 93.7 92.6 92.9 94.1 95.4 96.6 97.9 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 6 7 7 5 3 5 6 5 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 43 33 24 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 684 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 5. 9. 14. 19. 23. 26. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 9. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -14. -15. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. -2. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 16. 20. 19. 14. 13. 12. 13. 13. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 9. 11. 18. 20. 20. 13. 10. 9. 10. 10. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL092007 NINE 09/12/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.1 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 83.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.6 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Scaled RI index= 4.0 Prob of RI= 15% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.4 Prob of RI= 33% is 2.7 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092007 NINE 09/12/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY