* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL912007 09/12/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 42 45 52 58 65 67 67 68 68 68 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 42 45 52 58 65 67 67 68 68 68 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 35 38 41 48 55 62 68 73 74 74 72 SHEAR (KTS) 7 1 2 6 7 4 2 6 11 14 15 16 17 SHEAR DIR 80 124 20 345 17 173 330 215 249 218 262 261 269 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.1 28.2 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 135 134 132 132 133 131 132 132 132 134 136 138 140 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 128 125 125 125 122 122 123 123 124 126 126 127 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.7 -53.8 -54.0 -54.1 -53.7 -53.9 -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -54.2 -54.4 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 10 9 9 10 10 11 10 11 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 55 50 51 54 53 52 46 45 40 42 39 40 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 19 5 5 3 0 2 -4 -6 -15 -12 -6 4 19 200 MB DIV 16 11 6 28 13 -9 -23 3 -23 -39 -16 -16 -29 LAND (KM) 1274 1257 1239 1216 1196 1199 1200 1218 1234 1228 1156 1105 1060 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.4 13.7 13.9 14.1 14.6 15.0 15.6 16.2 16.9 17.4 17.9 18.3 LONG(DEG W) 44.2 44.9 45.5 46.1 46.7 47.5 48.3 49.2 50.3 51.5 52.7 53.8 54.9 STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 6 6 5 4 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 21 22 25 29 30 30 32 41 46 51 55 62 63 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 634 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 20. 22. 24. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 13. 13. 11. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 14. 21. 28. 35. 38. 39. 40. 40. 41. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -2. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 12. 15. 22. 28. 35. 37. 37. 38. 38. 38. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL912007 INVEST 09/12/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.8 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 77.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.9 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Scaled RI index= 4.2 Prob of RI= 24% is 2.0 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.4 Prob of RI= 35% is 2.9 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912007 INVEST 09/12/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY