* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * EIGHT AL082007 09/12/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 37 41 44 51 56 62 67 68 70 70 71 V (KT) LAND 30 34 37 41 44 51 56 62 67 68 70 70 71 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 35 38 41 47 53 60 67 73 76 77 76 SHEAR (KTS) 4 3 6 11 5 7 4 9 6 16 14 19 12 SHEAR DIR 74 14 329 355 352 314 276 236 171 221 246 256 265 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.5 28.7 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 135 135 134 134 134 133 133 134 137 139 144 145 145 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 129 127 126 126 124 124 125 128 132 137 135 133 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.8 -54.0 -54.1 -53.8 -54.0 -54.0 -54.2 -54.1 -54.6 -54.8 -55.1 -55.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 48 51 51 50 48 49 44 41 39 38 38 39 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 7 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 4 3 -3 -16 -34 -27 -27 -25 -37 -26 -18 -3 -2 200 MB DIV 9 7 11 3 -15 -14 -6 -12 -5 -5 5 -17 0 LAND (KM) 1247 1210 1175 1158 1144 1112 1095 1091 1080 986 859 800 785 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.6 13.8 14.0 14.2 14.4 14.7 15.0 15.2 15.7 16.3 16.8 17.2 LONG(DEG W) 45.0 45.8 46.6 47.2 47.8 48.9 49.9 50.8 51.9 53.4 55.4 56.9 57.9 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 6 6 5 5 5 7 9 9 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 22 28 31 31 31 37 51 56 60 59 67 71 72 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 13. 17. 21. 24. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 11. 10. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 13. 20. 26. 33. 38. 39. 42. 42. 43. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 7. 11. 14. 21. 26. 32. 37. 38. 40. 40. 41. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL082007 EIGHT 09/12/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.6 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 54.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.6 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Scaled RI index= 3.5 Prob of RI= 10% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.0 Prob of RI= 22% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082007 EIGHT 09/12/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY