* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * NINE AL092007 09/12/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 45 49 52 56 60 61 54 46 38 32 26 20 V (KT) LAND 40 45 49 42 36 30 28 27 27 27 28 29 30 V (KT) LGE mod 40 46 50 45 38 30 28 27 27 27 28 29 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 13 13 16 14 15 26 34 51 49 52 49 30 N/A SHEAR DIR 285 264 282 278 250 242 233 249 257 269 252 247 N/A SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.3 28.0 27.6 27.2 26.3 25.5 24.5 21.8 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 161 161 162 163 156 137 133 128 118 111 103 88 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 135 134 137 138 133 118 115 110 102 96 90 79 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.8 -52.7 -52.6 -52.5 -53.0 -53.9 -54.5 -55.0 -55.5 -56.2 -58.4 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 4 2 6 4 5 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 60 63 65 61 52 45 38 30 25 32 31 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 7 5 6 6 6 6 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -27 -39 -51 -50 -21 -34 -16 -41 -59 -85 -61 -88 N/A 200 MB DIV 8 10 18 4 26 16 24 -30 -20 -12 -18 -5 N/A LAND (KM) 62 41 26 -27 -100 -263 -324 -456 -501 -421 -165 -29 N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.3 28.7 29.1 29.9 30.6 32.1 33.3 34.7 36.1 37.5 39.1 40.9 N/A LONG(DEG W) 95.1 95.0 94.8 94.6 94.4 92.6 89.7 86.9 83.8 80.7 77.3 73.8 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 6 8 9 12 14 14 14 15 16 16 N/A HEAT CONTENT 33 27 28 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 12. 11. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 6. 3. -1. -4. -6. -7. -10. PERSISTENCE 3. 6. 7. 9. 10. 9. 9. 8. 7. 5. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 6. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -14. -18. -21. -23. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 12. 16. 20. 21. 15. 8. 0. -6. -11. -17. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 9. 12. 16. 20. 21. 14. 6. -2. -8. -14. -20. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL092007 NINE 09/12/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.8 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 60.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.4 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Scaled RI index= 3.7 Prob of RI= 12% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.2 Prob of RI= 27% is 2.2 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092007 NINE 09/12/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY