* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* EIGHT AL082007 09/13/07 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 39 45 50 54 56 55 55 56 56
V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 39 45 50 54 56 55 55 56 56
V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 34 36 41 46 50 54 54 54 52 49
SHEAR (KTS) 2 5 7 4 4 8 13 10 22 23 28 27 26
SHEAR DIR 70 289 339 310 226 281 208 238 229 255 238 271 262
SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.4 28.6 28.8 28.9
POT. INT. (KT) 135 134 134 133 133 133 135 135 137 142 145 147 148
ADJ. POT. INT. 129 127 126 125 124 124 126 127 129 134 136 135 134
200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.9 -54.0 -53.9 -54.0 -54.2 -54.1 -54.2 -54.3 -54.8 -55.0 -55.4 -55.1
TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 11 11 10 11 10 11 10 11 10 11
700-500 MB RH 56 53 50 49 50 45 48 41 42 41 47 49 48
GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 7 6 7 6 7 7 6 6 6 5
850 MB ENV VOR 2 -9 -20 -36 -32 -36 -22 -29 -20 -16 -14 -3 2
200 MB DIV -9 -7 -5 -11 -5 -11 -8 -14 -6 -1 -5 1 -6
LAND (KM) 1196 1169 1146 1139 1135 1134 1126 1141 1064 983 907 812 696
LAT (DEG N) 13.6 13.8 14.0 14.2 14.4 14.8 15.2 15.7 16.4 17.1 17.7 18.2 18.6
LONG(DEG W) 46.0 46.7 47.4 47.9 48.4 49.3 50.4 51.6 53.0 54.6 56.5 58.0 59.1
STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 5 5 5 6 7 8 9 9 6 5
HEAT CONTENT 29 31 31 31 33 43 51 55 60 62 68 73 74
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 624 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.9 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 24. 26. 28.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 7. 3. 0. -4. -6.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 14. 19. 25. 27. 27. 28. 28. 29.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3.
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TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 9. 15. 20. 24. 26. 25. 25. 26. 26.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL082007 EIGHT 09/13/07 00 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7
D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.3 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 53.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.9 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4
Scaled RI index= 3.5 Prob of RI= 10% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 3.9 Prob of RI= 20% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082007 EIGHT 09/13/07 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY