* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * EIGHT AL082007 09/13/07 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 34 36 40 45 49 50 51 53 55 54 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 34 36 40 45 49 50 51 53 55 54 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 33 35 38 42 45 47 47 48 47 47 SHEAR (KTS) 5 6 5 8 10 10 15 15 23 18 24 21 30 SHEAR DIR 304 314 266 237 253 218 228 223 247 245 256 271 279 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.4 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 135 134 133 133 133 135 135 137 142 144 145 147 148 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 126 125 123 123 127 127 129 133 135 135 135 136 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.0 -53.8 -53.7 -53.9 -54.1 -54.4 -54.3 -54.7 -54.8 -55.1 -55.0 -55.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 11 700-500 MB RH 52 49 47 53 48 48 44 44 43 43 46 44 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -21 -35 -37 -47 -42 -36 -36 -24 -24 -7 -12 2 200 MB DIV -8 -5 -13 -10 0 -10 -28 -1 -3 -1 4 20 -1 LAND (KM) 1145 1135 1130 1126 1123 1107 1114 1052 946 873 834 761 632 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.1 14.3 14.5 14.6 14.9 15.4 15.9 16.4 16.9 17.4 17.9 18.4 LONG(DEG W) 47.1 47.7 48.3 48.7 49.1 50.1 51.4 52.8 54.4 55.9 57.3 58.5 59.7 STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 5 4 5 6 7 8 8 7 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 32 31 32 35 39 52 55 59 59 70 68 73 75 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 729 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 21. 24. 26. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 3. 1. -2. -4. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 11. 15. 20. 21. 23. 24. 26. 27. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 4. 6. 10. 15. 19. 20. 21. 23. 25. 24. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL082007 EIGHT 09/13/07 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.2 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 37.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.5 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Scaled RI index= 3.1 Prob of RI= 5% is 0.4 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.6 Prob of RI= 13% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082007 EIGHT 09/13/07 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED