* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * HUMBERTO AL092007 09/13/07 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 75 78 79 79 76 66 57 45 36 27 21 15 V (KT) LAND 70 54 43 36 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 70 57 45 37 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 17 20 19 18 25 34 43 39 45 44 43 29 N/A SHEAR DIR 273 266 253 238 243 229 249 252 283 284 300 321 N/A SST (C) 29.8 29.7 29.2 28.6 27.9 28.0 28.5 28.6 28.3 27.9 27.1 26.3 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 165 163 154 145 134 134 142 144 139 134 125 116 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 140 139 131 123 112 110 116 118 115 112 105 98 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.8 -52.5 -52.2 -53.0 -53.4 -54.0 -54.9 -55.6 -56.1 -56.6 -57.0 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 6 7 4 7 1 1 0 0 0 1 N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 63 60 56 54 46 37 31 35 37 34 29 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 9 9 10 10 6 4 3 2 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -55 -57 -34 -28 -38 -10 -55 -60 -100 -70 -101 -63 N/A 200 MB DIV 34 12 33 43 18 14 -19 -41 -21 -34 -32 -27 N/A LAND (KM) 16 -50 -122 -207 -277 -249 -236 -223 -296 -374 -405 -389 N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.5 30.2 30.9 31.6 32.3 32.6 32.5 32.7 33.2 33.8 34.9 36.2 N/A LONG(DEG W) 94.4 93.9 93.4 92.7 92.0 90.6 89.5 88.2 86.9 85.5 83.8 82.0 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 9 7 5 5 6 6 8 9 9 N/A HEAT CONTENT 30 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 6 CX,CY: 2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 630 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. -13. -14. PERSISTENCE 5. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. 6. 4. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 6. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -11. -15. -19. -22. -24. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 6. 9. 11. 12. 9. -2. -11. -23. -33. -42. -48. -53. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 8. 9. 9. 6. -4. -13. -25. -34. -43. -49. -55. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL092007 HUMBERTO 09/13/07 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 25.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.2 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 69.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.1 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Scaled RI index= 3.4 Prob of RI= 9% is 0.7 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.7 Prob of RI= 16% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092007 HUMBERTO 09/13/07 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED