* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * EIGHT AL082007 09/13/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 35 36 40 44 46 47 46 47 48 49 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 35 36 40 44 46 47 46 47 48 49 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 33 35 38 41 43 44 43 42 41 40 SHEAR (KTS) 6 6 6 12 9 13 13 23 23 27 26 24 26 SHEAR DIR 336 278 251 265 261 219 239 226 248 248 275 265 289 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.4 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 134 134 133 132 133 135 135 137 141 144 146 148 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 126 124 122 123 126 126 128 133 135 137 138 139 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.9 -53.9 -54.1 -54.3 -54.2 -54.5 -54.5 -55.1 -55.3 -55.5 -55.3 -55.4 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 12 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 700-500 MB RH 50 50 51 48 48 50 45 48 43 45 45 41 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -37 -45 -54 -53 -48 -49 -33 -26 -14 -3 -8 -2 200 MB DIV -5 -15 -22 -7 0 -24 -4 -23 -8 -13 -9 -21 -2 LAND (KM) 1111 1107 1107 1096 1084 1077 1111 1052 947 871 839 739 573 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.1 14.3 14.4 14.4 14.8 15.4 15.9 16.3 16.8 17.4 18.1 19.0 LONG(DEG W) 47.7 48.3 48.8 49.2 49.5 50.6 51.5 52.8 54.3 55.8 57.2 58.7 60.3 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 3 4 5 6 7 8 7 8 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 33 33 36 40 45 54 55 59 59 69 68 75 76 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 650 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 24. 26. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. -1. -5. -8. -10. -12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 10. 15. 17. 18. 18. 18. 20. 22. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 5. 6. 10. 14. 16. 17. 16. 17. 18. 19. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL082007 EIGHT 09/13/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.4 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 42.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.5 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Scaled RI index= 3.2 Prob of RI= 6% is 0.5 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.6 Prob of RI= 14% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082007 EIGHT 09/13/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY