* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * HUMBERTO AL092007 09/13/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 64 63 63 62 57 50 43 34 29 26 25 21 V (KT) LAND 65 49 39 34 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 65 49 39 33 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 22 18 19 25 29 41 32 38 36 40 25 22 N/A SHEAR DIR 270 266 234 240 231 230 251 257 283 270 272 265 N/A SST (C) 29.6 29.2 28.5 28.2 27.9 28.5 29.3 29.0 28.4 28.4 28.5 27.7 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 162 155 143 139 134 143 157 151 141 142 143 133 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 138 132 121 117 113 121 133 127 118 119 120 111 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.3 -52.2 -52.9 -53.2 -53.3 -54.1 -54.5 -55.2 -55.6 -56.5 -56.8 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 6 7 4 3 7 0 2 0 2 0 2 N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 60 57 55 52 45 38 34 35 39 38 40 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 9 10 11 8 6 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -57 -35 -34 -41 -25 -16 -34 -37 -52 -45 -49 -67 N/A 200 MB DIV 8 32 39 28 9 -5 -24 -33 -13 -14 -7 -26 N/A LAND (KM) -58 -138 -213 -235 -259 -229 -177 -211 -134 -29 -7 -32 N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.3 31.0 31.7 32.2 32.7 32.7 32.1 32.0 32.3 32.7 33.8 35.0 N/A LONG(DEG W) 93.6 92.9 92.2 91.4 90.6 88.6 86.3 84.3 82.4 80.7 78.9 77.2 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 8 8 9 9 8 8 9 9 10 N/A HEAT CONTENT 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 15 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 10 CX,CY: 6/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 635 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. -10. -12. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 5. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -11. -14. -18. -20. -22. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -3. -8. -15. -22. -31. -36. -39. -40. -44. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -2. -2. -3. -8. -15. -22. -31. -36. -39. -40. -44. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL092007 HUMBERTO 09/13/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.2 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 80.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.8 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 Scaled RI index= 3.1 Prob of RI= 5% is 0.4 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.2 Prob of RI= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092007 HUMBERTO 09/13/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY