* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * EIGHT AL082007 09/13/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 34 35 40 44 46 48 47 49 49 49 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 34 35 40 44 46 48 47 49 49 49 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 31 32 33 36 38 41 42 43 42 41 39 SHEAR (KTS) 8 9 15 13 10 14 13 22 21 29 20 31 22 SHEAR DIR 264 236 264 277 251 239 218 237 245 260 267 278 286 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 133 133 133 133 134 135 136 138 141 144 146 147 148 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 125 124 123 125 126 127 128 131 135 136 135 135 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.1 -54.2 -54.3 -54.1 -54.5 -54.7 -55.1 -55.2 -55.4 -55.5 -55.5 -55.6 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 12 11 12 12 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 50 50 50 47 49 48 48 46 45 45 46 47 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -35 -41 -46 -56 -52 -47 -32 -16 -7 -9 1 -12 200 MB DIV -17 -22 -1 -4 -1 -8 0 0 20 4 8 -3 6 LAND (KM) 1115 1104 1094 1090 1087 1080 1067 974 907 849 824 730 611 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.3 14.4 14.6 14.7 15.0 15.5 15.8 16.2 16.7 17.4 17.9 18.5 LONG(DEG W) 48.2 48.8 49.3 49.7 50.1 51.1 52.4 53.6 54.7 56.0 57.5 58.8 59.9 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 4 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 32 36 42 48 52 57 56 60 61 71 68 76 75 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 621 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 24. 26. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 1. -2. -7. -9. -12. -14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 10. 14. 16. 19. 19. 20. 21. 22. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 4. 5. 10. 14. 16. 18. 17. 19. 19. 19. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL082007 EIGHT 09/13/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.2 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 35.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.1 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Scaled RI index= 3.0 Prob of RI= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.5 Prob of RI= 11% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082007 EIGHT 09/13/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY