* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INGRID AL082007 09/14/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 38 39 41 42 43 43 42 41 43 44 V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 38 39 41 42 43 43 42 41 43 44 V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 36 37 38 39 41 41 40 38 36 34 33 SHEAR (KTS) 11 17 14 12 15 18 23 27 31 28 28 24 29 SHEAR DIR 245 257 275 254 251 261 241 260 248 271 268 286 259 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.4 28.5 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 133 133 133 134 134 135 137 141 143 145 147 149 151 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 123 124 125 125 125 127 132 133 133 134 137 139 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.1 -54.3 -54.3 -54.4 -54.9 -54.8 -55.3 -55.4 -55.5 -55.3 -55.5 -55.6 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 12 12 11 12 11 11 11 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 51 50 46 47 48 46 46 43 45 46 44 47 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 3 3 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -30 -40 -40 -48 -49 -52 -36 -20 -9 5 -1 4 -6 200 MB DIV -20 -10 -8 -10 -22 -4 -15 9 -3 -1 1 6 -5 LAND (KM) 1151 1152 1154 1151 1154 1159 1082 990 934 886 801 667 517 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.8 15.0 15.3 15.5 16.0 16.4 16.9 17.6 18.1 18.4 19.0 19.7 LONG(DEG W) 48.5 48.9 49.3 49.9 50.5 51.7 52.8 54.3 55.9 57.3 58.1 59.4 61.0 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 5 6 6 6 7 8 8 6 6 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 33 37 43 49 48 56 57 62 67 67 72 74 76 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 16. 19. 21. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -2. -6. -11. -15. -18. -20. -21. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. 10. 12. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 8. 9. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL082007 INGRID 09/14/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.0 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 38.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.9 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Scaled RI index= 2.8 Prob of RI= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.3 Prob of RI= 7% is 0.5 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082007 INGRID 09/14/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY