* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INGRID AL082007 09/14/07 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 37 38 40 40 41 41 43 45 48 50 V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 37 38 40 40 41 41 43 45 48 50 V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 36 36 37 38 38 38 37 37 37 39 41 SHEAR (KTS) 16 16 15 16 21 18 28 22 27 17 23 19 21 SHEAR DIR 254 266 257 249 259 254 264 253 255 276 277 273 262 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.2 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 133 133 133 134 135 135 138 143 144 145 146 149 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 123 124 125 126 126 129 134 134 133 133 135 138 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.3 -54.3 -54.3 -54.5 -54.6 -54.7 -55.0 -55.3 -55.4 -55.4 -55.4 -55.7 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 12 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 700-500 MB RH 50 45 47 47 46 50 46 47 45 44 44 42 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 6 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR -28 -31 -40 -41 -46 -47 -31 -25 -4 -1 14 9 23 200 MB DIV -7 -10 -8 -17 -9 7 0 4 -2 18 7 12 -1 LAND (KM) 1158 1159 1161 1168 1179 1136 1047 972 928 812 723 637 561 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.1 15.3 15.6 15.9 16.4 16.9 17.5 18.1 18.7 19.3 20.0 20.9 LONG(DEG W) 49.0 49.4 49.8 50.4 51.0 52.2 53.6 55.2 56.8 58.0 58.9 59.9 61.1 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 5 7 6 7 8 8 7 6 5 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 38 44 47 48 54 54 61 63 67 73 77 76 75 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 16. 19. 21. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. -7. -12. -14. -15. -15. -16. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 9. 11. 15. 17. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 8. 10. 13. 15. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL082007 INGRID 09/14/07 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.1 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 33.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.6 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Scaled RI index= 2.7 Prob of RI= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.3 Prob of RI= 7% is 0.6 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082007 INGRID 09/14/07 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED