* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INGRID AL082007 09/14/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 43 44 44 46 45 46 46 46 48 50 51 V (KT) LAND 40 42 43 44 44 46 45 46 46 46 48 50 51 V (KT) LGE mod 40 42 43 44 45 45 45 45 44 44 44 45 46 SHEAR (KTS) 17 18 20 20 19 23 25 23 24 24 23 20 17 SHEAR DIR 261 253 247 252 262 254 270 260 282 264 280 261 296 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 134 133 134 135 135 137 141 143 144 147 148 150 153 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 124 124 126 126 128 131 132 132 133 134 135 138 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.3 -54.4 -54.5 -54.7 -54.7 -55.1 -55.1 -55.4 -55.4 -55.4 -55.6 -55.8 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 12 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 49 50 50 50 50 51 46 45 45 42 42 41 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 8 8 8 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR -33 -38 -38 -48 -50 -43 -30 -21 1 2 14 10 15 200 MB DIV -14 -4 -11 -1 10 1 -1 -1 14 10 7 -9 2 LAND (KM) 1145 1155 1168 1176 1151 1088 1006 964 896 787 726 658 594 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.4 15.7 16.0 16.2 16.9 17.4 18.0 18.7 19.4 20.3 21.0 21.7 LONG(DEG W) 49.7 50.2 50.7 51.3 51.9 53.1 54.6 56.0 57.2 58.3 59.1 60.1 61.3 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 48 49 50 55 55 61 60 67 66 76 75 71 74 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 645 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 16. 18. 19. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -10. -13. -15. -17. -17. -17. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 11. 13. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 5. 6. 6. 6. 8. 10. 11. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL082007 INGRID 09/14/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.9 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 51.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.4 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Scaled RI index= 3.0 Prob of RI= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.5 Prob of RI= 10% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082007 INGRID 09/14/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY