* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP962007 09/14/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 35 42 46 50 51 56 59 60 62 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 35 42 46 50 51 56 59 60 62 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 26 26 28 SHEAR (KTS) 21 17 14 15 12 14 18 15 14 13 16 9 9 SHEAR DIR 93 103 77 71 68 50 50 51 42 25 11 33 24 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.8 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.7 28.0 28.4 28.6 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 142 142 142 144 143 140 140 143 147 148 149 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.6 -53.0 -53.3 -53.5 -52.6 -53.3 -52.2 -53.0 -52.3 -52.7 -51.8 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 79 78 78 78 78 78 78 75 74 70 73 74 72 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 9 10 9 11 11 12 11 12 12 12 12 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -2 -1 2 3 7 17 23 17 20 20 24 30 200 MB DIV 95 66 73 67 56 52 25 36 28 41 48 65 70 LAND (KM) 964 1005 1049 1103 1152 1277 1413 1497 1564 1635 1685 1699 1665 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.6 10.6 10.7 10.7 10.7 10.7 10.8 10.9 11.1 11.6 12.3 13.1 LONG(DEG W) 107.3 108.2 109.0 110.0 110.9 112.8 114.6 116.2 117.7 119.2 120.6 121.6 122.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 7 5 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 26.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 22. 25. 27. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 6. 8. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 11. 19. 24. 29. 30. 32. 33. 34. 36. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -4. -2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -1. 1. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 10. 17. 21. 25. 26. 31. 34. 35. 37. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP962007 INVEST 09/14/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.8 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.4 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.2 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 86.4 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 19.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.7 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Scaled RI index= 3.2 Prob of RI= 13% is 1.0 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.3 Prob of RI= 13% is 1.0 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962007 INVEST 09/14/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED