* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INGRID AL082007 09/14/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 38 40 41 43 45 47 49 53 57 63 V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 38 40 41 43 45 47 49 53 57 63 V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 36 36 37 38 39 40 41 44 47 52 58 SHEAR (KTS) 13 19 20 19 14 26 16 19 16 20 11 14 3 SHEAR DIR 244 239 250 260 251 262 260 255 271 272 270 260 273 SST (C) 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 134 136 136 136 137 140 143 144 145 148 152 152 154 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 127 127 128 129 130 132 130 130 133 135 133 133 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.3 -54.5 -54.8 -54.7 -54.8 -55.0 -55.1 -55.1 -55.4 -55.3 -55.5 -55.5 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 11 12 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 48 47 48 50 52 48 49 49 48 49 46 43 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 9 9 9 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 850 MB ENV VOR -28 -29 -36 -40 -44 -36 -21 3 11 26 29 41 57 200 MB DIV -8 -9 0 19 12 4 -2 -8 18 3 24 1 9 LAND (KM) 1151 1170 1179 1145 1117 1093 1036 920 833 771 727 714 736 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.8 16.2 16.7 17.2 18.2 19.2 19.9 20.5 21.2 22.2 22.9 23.5 LONG(DEG W) 50.3 51.0 51.6 52.3 53.0 54.3 55.9 57.1 58.1 59.0 60.1 60.9 61.3 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 6 6 6 6 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 49 53 54 54 59 62 61 65 75 68 65 55 48 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 670 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 5. 9. 13. 16. 19. 21. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -2. -5. -6. -8. -8. -7. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 13. 16. 20. 24. 30. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. 18. 22. 28. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL082007 INGRID 09/14/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.4 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 51.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.8 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Scaled RI index= 3.2 Prob of RI= 6% is 0.5 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.7 Prob of RI= 14% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082007 INGRID 09/14/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY