* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INGRID AL082007 09/15/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 34 35 35 35 37 39 41 43 48 53 57 V (KT) LAND 35 35 34 35 35 35 37 39 41 43 48 53 57 V (KT) LGE mod 35 34 32 32 32 31 31 32 33 35 38 42 48 SHEAR (KTS) 20 23 23 20 23 22 19 18 20 17 13 9 7 SHEAR DIR 249 252 260 257 262 271 244 266 251 279 237 303 292 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.8 29.2 29.2 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 136 136 137 137 139 141 142 141 143 147 154 153 155 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 127 128 128 129 131 130 126 127 132 138 135 136 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.6 -54.7 -54.6 -54.6 -54.9 -54.9 -55.1 -55.2 -55.5 -55.5 -55.6 -55.4 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 11 12 12 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 49 51 49 50 50 47 49 50 48 50 46 44 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 8 8 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR -24 -32 -39 -43 -42 -37 -20 2 3 7 0 2 -4 200 MB DIV -4 -3 12 16 1 -17 -2 3 2 15 -7 -13 -24 LAND (KM) 1155 1160 1124 1104 1090 1078 1018 949 902 841 778 769 807 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.1 16.5 17.0 17.5 18.5 19.5 20.3 20.8 21.5 22.6 23.5 24.5 LONG(DEG W) 51.1 51.8 52.4 53.0 53.6 54.9 56.1 56.9 57.5 58.4 59.8 60.8 61.6 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 8 8 8 7 5 5 7 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 54 55 53 61 57 63 59 60 66 66 61 48 44 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 643 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 5. 9. 13. 16. 19. 21. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -9. -12. -11. -10. -8. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 7. 9. 15. 20. 25. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 13. 18. 22. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL082007 INGRID 09/15/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.0 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 60.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.4 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Scaled RI index= 3.0 Prob of RI= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.4 Prob of RI= 9% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082007 INGRID 09/15/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY