* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INGRID AL082007 09/15/07 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 33 32 31 32 33 37 41 46 52 57 61 V (KT) LAND 35 34 33 32 31 32 33 37 41 46 52 57 61 V (KT) LGE mod 35 33 32 31 30 29 29 29 31 34 39 45 52 SHEAR (KTS) 24 26 25 27 29 17 22 14 16 7 11 6 10 SHEAR DIR 247 258 262 265 275 257 244 255 264 240 248 188 241 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 138 137 139 140 142 143 144 145 148 151 153 153 151 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 128 130 131 131 131 130 129 131 135 134 133 129 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.9 -54.7 -54.7 -54.9 -54.9 -55.0 -55.1 -55.2 -55.2 -55.5 -55.3 -55.6 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 12 12 12 11 11 10 10 10 10 9 700-500 MB RH 51 47 49 50 50 54 52 53 51 49 49 47 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 10 9 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR -30 -40 -44 -43 -44 -41 -13 2 10 4 2 7 6 200 MB DIV -8 15 14 1 3 0 0 16 12 18 -1 8 18 LAND (KM) 1121 1088 1061 1052 1052 1003 901 829 789 769 804 870 941 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.7 17.1 17.7 18.2 19.1 20.0 20.7 21.4 22.2 23.3 24.3 25.2 LONG(DEG W) 52.3 53.0 53.6 54.3 54.9 56.2 57.3 58.2 58.9 59.6 60.1 60.3 60.4 STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 8 8 8 7 6 5 5 6 5 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 55 59 61 61 64 62 67 75 67 64 51 42 42 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 722 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 29.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 13. 16. 20. 22. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -10. -10. -9. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 3. 6. 11. 17. 23. 28. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL082007 INGRID 09/15/07 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.1 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 42.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.4 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Scaled RI index= 2.4 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.0 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082007 INGRID 09/15/07 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED