* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INGRID AL082007 09/15/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 28 27 28 32 37 40 45 50 56 58 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 28 27 28 32 37 40 45 50 56 58 V (KT) LGE mod 30 28 27 26 25 23 23 24 26 29 33 39 45 SHEAR (KTS) 28 29 31 31 25 21 15 16 15 9 11 9 20 SHEAR DIR 255 259 265 276 273 256 277 267 290 249 307 285 327 SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.2 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 139 141 142 143 144 146 147 147 149 153 155 153 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 134 133 133 134 134 133 131 132 137 137 132 130 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.7 -54.8 -55.0 -55.0 -54.8 -55.2 -55.0 -55.3 -55.3 -55.5 -55.1 -55.6 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 12 12 12 11 11 10 10 10 10 9 700-500 MB RH 49 51 52 51 51 54 55 54 52 49 46 43 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 9 8 8 6 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR -42 -44 -43 -46 -44 -45 -20 -13 -2 7 13 7 5 200 MB DIV 5 21 2 6 0 -13 6 5 26 -5 -7 -29 -16 LAND (KM) 1032 999 977 969 969 845 735 702 720 738 766 831 895 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.9 17.4 17.9 18.3 19.0 19.9 20.7 21.5 22.5 23.7 24.7 25.5 LONG(DEG W) 53.3 54.2 55.0 55.7 56.4 57.7 58.9 59.5 59.7 60.2 61.1 61.5 61.7 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 8 8 7 6 4 5 6 6 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 60 62 63 66 66 70 78 71 68 62 47 44 44 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 716 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 26.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 15. 19. 23. 26. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 2. 6. 10. 15. 21. 27. 30. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. 2. 7. 10. 15. 20. 26. 28. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL082007 INGRID 09/15/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.5 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 48.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.5 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Scaled RI index= 2.6 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.3 Prob of RI= 6% is 0.5 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082007 INGRID 09/15/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY