* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INGRID AL082007 09/15/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 29 29 32 36 41 46 50 57 62 66 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 29 29 32 36 41 46 50 57 62 66 V (KT) LGE mod 30 28 27 26 26 25 26 28 31 34 40 48 56 SHEAR (KTS) 27 30 25 18 17 19 15 20 7 11 4 9 9 SHEAR DIR 252 256 267 256 240 266 269 261 244 268 312 300 356 SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 142 144 145 146 146 150 152 153 153 156 154 150 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 136 136 136 137 141 139 135 136 141 134 124 129 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.7 -55.1 -55.0 -54.8 -54.9 -55.1 -55.2 -55.1 -55.3 -55.4 -55.3 -55.4 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 12 12 11 11 11 10 10 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 50 50 49 50 52 52 56 55 53 50 47 43 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 8 8 8 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 6 850 MB ENV VOR -32 -32 -38 -34 -40 -23 -4 12 3 4 12 -3 0 200 MB DIV 16 17 8 -2 -15 6 13 7 12 -8 4 -5 -14 LAND (KM) 930 908 897 899 854 696 626 631 642 695 823 856 799 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.9 17.4 17.9 18.3 19.5 21.1 22.0 22.7 23.9 25.7 26.1 25.5 LONG(DEG W) 54.6 55.4 56.2 56.9 57.6 59.2 60.5 61.1 61.7 62.6 64.1 64.6 64.2 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 8 9 10 8 5 6 9 7 0 3 HEAT CONTENT 59 67 68 68 67 78 71 69 63 48 45 37 48 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 759 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 28.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 10. 16. 20. 24. 27. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -4. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -1. -1. 2. 6. 10. 15. 20. 28. 33. 39. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -2. -1. -1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 27. 32. 36. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL082007 INGRID 09/15/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.2 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 34.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.7 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Scaled RI index= 2.5 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.3 Prob of RI= 6% is 0.5 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082007 INGRID 09/15/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY