* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INGRID AL082007 09/16/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 28 29 32 35 39 42 47 52 59 62 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 28 29 32 35 39 42 47 52 59 62 V (KT) LGE mod 30 28 27 26 26 25 26 26 27 30 34 40 48 SHEAR (KTS) 31 25 21 23 24 24 23 20 17 8 6 4 5 SHEAR DIR 251 259 252 252 260 279 263 279 252 287 227 336 297 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 144 145 147 147 148 149 152 153 155 154 154 155 153 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 137 139 139 138 136 137 137 136 133 133 134 131 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.9 -54.9 -54.7 -54.5 -55.0 -55.0 -55.3 -55.2 -55.5 -55.3 -55.6 -55.7 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 12 12 11 11 10 10 9 10 9 10 700-500 MB RH 52 50 47 50 50 55 51 56 50 48 44 45 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 8 7 7 6 5 6 4 5 4 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR -29 -36 -39 -41 -33 -17 -16 4 -8 -1 -10 -5 -9 200 MB DIV 12 15 -4 -8 4 28 4 0 -11 -6 -22 6 -21 LAND (KM) 907 878 860 828 739 631 583 578 618 652 690 753 832 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.2 17.5 18.2 18.8 19.8 20.8 21.8 22.8 23.5 24.1 24.9 25.8 LONG(DEG W) 55.3 56.2 57.0 57.9 58.7 59.9 60.8 61.6 62.2 62.7 63.1 63.6 64.2 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 10 10 9 7 6 6 5 4 4 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 66 70 68 71 75 76 73 76 64 52 53 55 43 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 683 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 10. 16. 20. 24. 27. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -5. -8. -10. -10. -8. -6. -4. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -1. 2. 4. 8. 11. 16. 22. 29. 34. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -2. -2. -1. 2. 5. 9. 12. 17. 22. 29. 32. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL082007 INGRID 09/16/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.9 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 20.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.9 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Scaled RI index= 2.4 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.2 Prob of RI= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082007 INGRID 09/16/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY