* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INGRID AL082007 09/16/07 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 33 34 38 41 47 50 56 61 66 68 V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 33 34 38 41 47 50 56 61 66 68 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 30 31 31 32 33 36 39 45 53 62 SHEAR (KTS) 26 20 20 21 22 20 22 10 15 4 7 3 18 SHEAR DIR 260 255 259 275 285 288 279 275 276 301 271 300 274 SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 145 146 148 148 149 148 150 151 153 154 154 156 155 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 138 138 137 138 135 135 135 135 135 135 136 134 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -55.0 -54.6 -54.4 -54.4 -54.6 -54.7 -54.7 -55.0 -55.1 -55.2 -55.3 -55.5 TH_E DEV (C) 12 13 13 13 12 12 11 11 10 10 10 10 9 700-500 MB RH 50 46 49 49 51 53 53 51 49 50 43 49 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 6 5 6 5 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR -24 -32 -38 -34 -32 -33 -18 -21 -20 -5 -9 2 -5 200 MB DIV 10 -1 -9 -2 6 19 11 4 -8 2 2 5 5 LAND (KM) 840 825 817 739 664 556 508 500 511 540 583 652 748 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.3 17.6 18.0 18.4 19.2 20.0 20.9 21.7 22.4 23.1 24.0 25.0 LONG(DEG W) 56.4 57.2 58.0 58.7 59.4 60.5 61.2 61.8 62.4 62.9 63.3 63.8 64.1 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 7 6 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 70 69 71 75 74 75 80 82 78 72 61 53 56 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 710 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 10. 16. 20. 24. 26. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -3. -5. -6. -5. -4. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 11. 16. 18. 24. 29. 35. 39. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 1. 3. 4. 8. 11. 17. 20. 26. 31. 36. 38. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL082007 INGRID 09/16/07 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.6 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 18.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.5 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Scaled RI index= 2.5 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.3 Prob of RI= 7% is 0.6 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082007 INGRID 09/16/07 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED