* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INGRID AL082007 09/16/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 33 34 37 40 45 49 54 59 64 65 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 33 34 37 40 45 49 54 59 64 65 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 31 33 36 42 49 56 SHEAR (KTS) 24 22 24 25 24 24 23 11 11 6 10 9 27 SHEAR DIR 256 265 275 293 287 292 301 282 318 275 324 281 307 SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.3 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 146 147 147 149 149 150 151 153 153 156 157 155 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 137 136 137 137 136 135 136 136 139 139 136 131 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -54.7 -54.4 -54.3 -54.6 -54.6 -54.8 -54.8 -55.1 -54.8 -55.1 -55.2 -55.4 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 13 12 12 12 11 11 10 10 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 47 50 49 51 51 50 51 48 50 49 51 46 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 6 6 6 7 8 850 MB ENV VOR -31 -34 -33 -36 -37 -32 -23 -33 -24 -17 -12 -7 -6 200 MB DIV 8 1 0 1 11 11 16 7 0 -10 3 -14 -1 LAND (KM) 795 795 732 670 611 509 469 465 477 524 628 747 869 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.4 17.7 18.1 18.5 19.4 20.2 21.0 21.7 22.7 24.0 25.2 26.5 LONG(DEG W) 57.5 58.2 58.8 59.4 59.9 61.0 61.7 62.3 62.9 63.7 64.6 65.3 65.7 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 5 7 7 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 70 72 75 76 75 76 85 81 74 66 55 52 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 738 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 33.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 10. 16. 20. 24. 27. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 14. 17. 22. 28. 34. 36. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 15. 19. 24. 29. 34. 35. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL082007 INGRID 09/16/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.0 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 57.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 33.5 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Scaled RI index= 2.7 Prob of RI= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.4 Prob of RI= 9% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082007 INGRID 09/16/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY