* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP962007 09/16/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 33 39 45 50 52 53 51 50 50 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 33 39 45 50 52 53 51 50 50 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 26 27 29 32 35 38 39 38 36 35 SHEAR (KTS) 9 8 6 7 6 1 4 12 9 13 12 12 17 SHEAR DIR 45 26 349 355 350 360 243 186 200 195 212 234 250 SST (C) 28.4 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.4 28.0 27.1 25.8 25.1 24.9 24.9 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 148 151 151 151 151 149 145 136 122 114 110 110 116 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.6 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -52.8 -53.2 -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 -52.8 -52.6 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 7 7 5 4 4 3 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 79 76 69 71 72 68 66 63 61 61 57 51 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 6 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR -29 -23 -25 -18 -9 -1 22 43 55 54 55 59 66 200 MB DIV 29 30 33 37 30 46 60 73 70 21 36 47 47 LAND (KM) 892 962 989 1009 1044 1159 1264 1393 1532 1619 1713 1806 1925 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.3 14.6 14.9 15.2 15.8 16.4 17.1 17.8 18.6 19.0 19.0 18.5 LONG(DEG W) 111.1 112.3 113.4 114.6 115.7 118.1 120.5 122.9 125.3 127.3 128.8 129.9 130.9 STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 12 12 11 12 12 12 11 9 6 5 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 781 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 16. 21. 24. 24. 24. 23. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 9. 10. 9. 9. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 8. 14. 22. 28. 30. 28. 25. 24. 23. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 20. 25. 27. 28. 26. 25. 25. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP962007 INVEST 09/16/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.8 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.6 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.6 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 12.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.7 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Scaled RI index= 3.5 Prob of RI= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.9 Prob of RI= 27% is 2.1 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962007 INVEST 09/16/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED